Photo by Zlaťáky.cz on Unsplash
 

We finally got a little bit of a sell-off today in the gold and silver markets after a furious rally had pushed the gold futures over $3,800 and the silver futures over the $44 level.

The gold futures are currently down $47 to $3,768.
 

The silver futures are down 47 cents, but are still over the $44 level at $44.13.
 

However, the most shocking development I saw today was that Daniel Ghali of TD Securities was on Bloomberg talking about the precious metals and sharing his thesis that we could actually be just 4-7 months away from a silver supply issue at the LBMA.

Silver investors have been speculating for decades that there could one day be a shortage. And perhaps more than at any other time since silver was removed from the coinage, the signs are mounting that we could actually be on the verge of seeing something like that happen.

To be clear, that’s different from saying that we are without a doubt going to have a silver shortage in the next half year. But I will say that I do try to be conservative, as I don’t want to lead anyone to ever be irrationally exuberant, and with that said, somewhere in the last few days it has struck me how there are now three different high-level banking executives who have in one way or another expressed legitimate concern about this situation.

So if you’d like to see Daniel’s interview on Bloomberg, that clip is here, and it’s highly recommended.
 

I shared my own analysis of Daniel’s comments in a video I posted this afternoon, where I also offer an update on the latest gold and silver bank short positions as per last Friday’s COT Report.
 

Before closing out, I just want to make clear that I am not saying today that we are definitively headed towards a silver shortage. Although the odds, whatever number that may actually be, are probably the highest they’ve been at least since I began studying the silver market in 2009.

So from a silver investing perspective, it’s on one hand beyond intriguing. Although I just want to make clear that we’re talking about an extreme market event, and not something that is a guaranteed outcome. Yet the various factors that have driven us to this point do still shockingly remain in play.

However, what I can guarantee is that I will look forward to continuing to follow this journey with you again tomorrow.

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