Crude Oil Forecast: Looks For Upside

With the Thanksgiving holiday looming on Thursday, the latter part of the week is expected to see diminished liquidity. 

The landscape in crude oil markets remained relatively subdued during the early hours of Tuesday, as the market continued to assimilate the gains from the preceding two trading sessions. After all, the markets need to digest all of this sudden inertia.

Turning our attention to the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market, we find that Tuesday's trading session has been characterized by a certain degree of tranquility. The prevailing atmosphere is marked by considerable noise, but a break above the high point of Monday's session could pave the way for a potential ascent towards the $80 mark. Conversely, a descent below the lower end of Monday's candlestick would put the $75 level at risk, possibly triggering a retracement towards the lows.

The crude oil markets currently find themselves ensnared in a cacophony of conflicting factors. On the one hand, they grapple with the task of factoring in the specter of a major recession. On the other hand, there's the looming possibility of heightened tensions and conflict in the Middle East. In essence, divergent currents are at play, rendering this a scenario ripe for sustained volatility. Consequently, prudent traders should exercise vigilance with regard to their position sizes.


Negotiating Short-Term Hurdles Amidst Thanksgiving Uncertainty

  • Meanwhile, in the Brent markets, we observe a slight negative tilt during Tuesday's trading session.
  • However, it appears that the highs achieved during Monday's session are currently serving as a short-term hurdle. Should we manage to surmount this obstacle, the market may set its sights on the $80 level, a substantial resistance in its own right.
  • Notably, the 200-Day Exponential Moving Average looms overhead as a formidable barrier, casting a shadow over the market's recent rally. Yet should we break free from this constraint, the $85 level could beckon.

Irrespective of the path ahead, exercising caution in position sizing is paramount. This is always the case, but at the end of the day – there are a lot of moving pieces, meaning it’s even more important at the moment. With the Thanksgiving holiday looming on Thursday, the latter part of the week is expected to see diminished liquidity. Consequently, it is prudent to keep position sizes conservative or even consider a wait-and-see approach as we transition into the following week. In conclusion, the prevailing sentiment suggests that the market is in the process of discerning whether it has found a bottom.

(Click on image to enlarge)

WTI Crude Oil

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