Crude Oil Commentary - Wednesday, May 8

Middle East Uncertainty

Oil prices are continuing to trade lower through the middle of the week, despite ongoing uncertainty over Israeli military operations in Rafah. Reports that ceasefire talks have resumed are keeping optimism alive for now. However, if talks fail again and operations in Rafah intensify, this will no doubt create bullish risk for oil prices near-term.  Another potential factor here is the seemingly growing backlash against Israel in the global political sphere. News that US has paused the shipment of bombs to Israel due to concerns over its actions in Rafah. Traders perhaps sense that this growing pressure will ultimately lead to a ceasefire agreement, keeping oil prices skewed lower for now.


EIA Inventories Next

Looking ahead today, traders are waiting on the latest EIA inventories report. Yesterday’s API release came in above forecasts, showing a surprise surplus of 0.5 million barrels. The market is looking for the EIA to record a 1-million-barrel deficit today. However, if this data surprises to the upside, this will no doubt add to bearish sentiment in crude, particularly on the back of last week’s large 7-million-barrel surplus.


USD in Focus

A stronger US Dollar is also keeping oil prices skewed lower here. Despite last week’s softer-than-forecast US jobs data, the greenback is rallying again this week on safe-haven flows and hawkish Fed commentary. While this recovery continues, oil prices look vulnerable to fresh downside.


Technical Views



The sell off in crude has seen the market breaking down below the bull channel from last year’s lows. Price is now testing support at the 77.64 level and with momentum studies bearish, focus is on a continuation lower with 72.61 the next support to watch. Bulls need to get back above 82.59 near-term to alleviate bearishness. 

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