Weak US Data Boost Oil

Oil prices are pushing higher today ahead of the keenly awaited US Core PCE reading for May. Yesterday, data showed that US jobless claims hit their highest level for more than two years, adding to speculation that the US jobs market is cooling. Additionally, GDP data showed that the US economy grew at just 1.4% in Q1, its slowest pace of growth since 2022. Together, yesterday’s economic releases are feeding into expectations that the Fed will push ahead with easing in September. CME pricing for a Q3 cut is currently sitting around the 60% mark.

US Inflation Data Due

Looking ahead today, the big focus will be on core PCE data. Used by the Fed as a key inflation gauge, the reading will be used as a barometer ahead of the upcoming CPI print. Should we see any downside surprise today, that will no doubt bolster September easing expectations, driving USD lower and allowing crude room to rally. However, if we see an upside surprise, this should bolster USD, capping the rally in crude.

Middle East Impact

Away from the Fed and USD movements, crude is also being driven by developments in the Middle East. Risks of a fresh war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon risk creating a much broader conflict in the region. Given the high level of supply risk attached to such an event, oil prices remain vulnerable to sharp upside shocks on any headlines that Israel will begin an offensive into Lebanon.

Technical Views

Crude

The rally in crude has seen price breaking back above the 77.64 level. Price is now testing the 82.59 level and the underside of the broken bull channel, with the longer term bear trend line just above. This is a key resistance area for the market and a break above here will be firmly bullish, turning focus to 87.63 next. 

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