We kicked off the day with Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., Existing Home Sales, Existing Home Sales MoM, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index, and Richmond Fed Services Indeex at 9:00 A.M.,42-Day Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 2-Year Note Auction and Money Supply at 12:00 P.M., Milk Production at 2:00 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.

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The US Dollar Index has held a range of 101-106 since the start of the year and in a slightly range of 99-107 since late 2022. While the US money supply remains at historic highs, the US government’s financing of record debt levels has created historic demand for the US dollar as foreign investors purchase that debt. Funds have been bullish on the dollar index since May and boosted their net long position significantly in late June. Last week’s CFTC data showed that large speculators were a net long 18,550 contracts, the most since last December. Central US Weather Pattern Discussion: Temps reach into 90’s/low 100’s across the eastern Midwest & mid-Southby Sun/Mon. Temps in the mid 90’swill be common this weekend and next Southern & Western Plains. Soil moisture loss across TX, OK, KS, CO, NE, and Western IA will be rapid. Additionally, there are hints that intense high pressure Ridging blankets the Central US Aug 23-6, which if realized keeps temps across the Plains/W Midwest in the 90’s/low 100’s, Rainfall will be lacking west of the Mississippi River. NOAA’s August climate probabilities confidence in details low, but NOAA places high odds on extension heat in Canada and the Western Plains, while keeping normal/above normal rainfall is isolated to the east/southeast. Weather remains important and no longer are favorable rainfall and mild temps guaranteed. Pollination is still ongoing across the Northern US Corn Belt. Soybeans of course arer a crop of August. Monday’s CBOT open interest data did not reflect the short covering that was expected. Corn open interest rose 4,101 contracts and Chicago wheat 1,745 contracts, while soybeans open interest fell 3,843 contracts. The sharp price rise and record speculative short position should have produced a sharper fall in open interest. The market message is the ownership profile is heavily skewed short, leaving the market vulnerable to future sharp rallies.

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