We kicked off the day with Challenger Job Cuts at 6:30 A.M., Core PCE Price Index MoM, Personal Income MoM, Personal Spending MoM, Employment Cost-Benefits QoQ, Employment Cost-Wages QoQ, Employment Cost Index QoQ, Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, PCE Price Index MoM & YoY, Continuing Jobless Claims, Core PCE Price Index YoY, and Jobless Claims 4-week Average at 7:30 A.M., Chicago PMI at 8:45 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Sorage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.

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The November employment report will be released tomorrow, with October jobs and unemployment data. Ahead of the report, the ADP payroll data showed that private businesses added 233,000 jobs in October, the most since July 2023. It’s worth noting that the ADP jobs figure has been below the nonfarm data12 of the last 14 months. The services sector added 211,000 jobs, and the goods-producing sector added 22,000. The boost in job growth was a little surprising as the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on Tuesday showed that the number of job openings in September fell by 418,000 jobs and were the lowest since January 2021 (pre-pandemic) at 7.4 Mil jobs.

US Crude Inventories Struggle to Build Despite Record Production:

Financial Times reported a couple days ago that, JP Morgan discovers 45 million barrels of oil which further clouds the oil market with more confusion, China demand and their underground supply facilities, with population declines, softening economy lessening their energy and grain imports. What does that mean for Iran and Venezuela. Meanwhile, Ag Resources (ARC) work maintains that, while 80+ crude isn’t likely as global surpluses are projected in 2025, fair value in spot crude does lie between $65-$75/barrel. It’s just tough to be bearish of US/world energy markets below this level amid stable US consumption and as newer record production levels have failed to materially imports. The US now reliably exports 30% of weekly exports. ARC also points out US gasoline consumption has exceeded year ago levels in 10 of the last 12 weeks. The shortages in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is still be slowly replenishing after misused to cap high energy prices that last four years. If President Trump wins the election, he vowed to: “Drill Baby Drill!”

Corn Ends Weak on Lack of Fresh Input;  Imminent End of Drought in Argentina:

The corn bulls and bears continue to lack leverage. Ideal South American weather, and the coming end to drought in Argentina and N Brazil, caps rallies. Expanded US ethanol production and solid export potential offer support. ARC’s long term concern remains that of newer lows in soybeans and enlarged global stocks if South American weather stays into spring. Rallies will be sold. But expect a two-sided market to persist into late year. Cumulative US ethanol grind through Oct 25^th is up 3% year-over-year at 2.46 Bil Gal. USDA projects ethanol’s corn demand draw to be down fractionally 24/25. Ethanol export disappearance remains sizable amid a lack of competition from Brazil. Notice that weekly ethanol stocks/use has tightened rapidly since summer. Seasonally, weekly grind doesn’t peak until December. The market has found equilibrium. $4.40 +, march CBOT is a sell. End users are recommended to only scale into additional coverage on corrections.

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