Copper Market Commentary - Wednesday, May 8

Copper Correction Continues

Copper prices have come under heavy selling pressure on Wednesday with the futures market down almost 2% on the session so far. The weakness comes in response to the ongoing rebound in the US Dollar as the greenback continues to recoup the losses suffered last week on the NFP undershoot. Hawkish comments from Fed’s Kashkari yesterday have helped strengthen demand for the Dollar. The Minneapolis Fed president warned that rates would likely have to stay at current levels for an extended period of time in order to help drive inflation back down. Looking ahead today, traders will be waiting on comments from Fed’s Jefferson, Cook and Collins. If we hear similar views today this should help drive USD higher still, weighing further on copper prices.

 

Supply Issues

Copper prices have been gaining steadily this year as a result of supply imbalances in the market which have seen global mines unable to keep up with demand. Speculative bullish pressure has added to the gains, as has better data out of China recently. Goldman Sachs recently upgraded its year end price target to $12k from $10k prior.

 

Data Focus

Looking ahead, focus is likely to stay with USD through the rest of the week. If the current DXY rebound continues, copper prices look likely to correct deeper near-term. US data into the end of the week will be watched by traders as will the latest Chinese inflation data due on Saturday.

 

Technical Views

 

Copper

The latest failure at the 4.5785 level runs the risk of creating a lower high against the current YTD highs. While this structure holds, the focus is on a deeper correction lower. Below here, the bull channel lows and the 4.2975 area will be the key support to watch. 

(Click on image to enlarge)

 


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