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Copper prices have surged over 40% in the past year, driven by exploding demand from AI data centers that require massive amounts of the metal for wiring, transformers, and cooling systems. As hyperscalers like Amazon (AMZN), Google, and Microsoft (MSFT) ramp up infrastructure to support generative AI, consumption is booming – data centers alone could account for 58% of copper use in AI-related applications by 2030.

Analysts at Bernstein forecast a massive copper shortage starting in 2027, coinciding with AI's mass-scale deployment, potentially pushing prices to $11,500 per ton. With hyperscalers planning over $600 billion in capex for 2026 to expand data center footprints, the supply crunch could send copper parabolic. As this megatrend unfolds, Rio Tinto (RIO) stands out as the miner best positioned to capitalize, thanks to its innovative tech and strategic assets.

A Shield Against Trade Volatility

Rio Tinto's copper operations are heavily focused in the U.S., providing a natural hedge against potential tariffs and trade disputes that could disrupt global supply chains. Key assets like the Kennecott mine in Utah and the Resolution Copper project in Arizona position RIO as a major domestic producer, reducing reliance on imports vulnerable to policies like those proposed by the Trump administrations.

With U.S. tariffs on foreign metals already impacting sectors like aluminum, additional duties on copper could follow, especially as demand surges from electrification and AI. This domestic emphasis not only minimizes logistical risks but also aligns with growing calls for secure, local supply chains.

As global tensions rise, RIO's U.S.-centric footprint ensures stable output, potentially commanding premium pricing in a protected market. Analysts note that such positioning could boost margins, as imported copper faces added costs, making domestic miners like RIO more competitive and resilient in uncertain times.

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Using Technology to Unlock Efficiency and Sustainability

At the forefront of RIO's edge is its pioneering Nuton technology, a bioleaching process that promises to revolutionize copper extraction. By using naturally occurring microbes to break down low-grade sulfide ores in a heap-leach system, Nuton achieves recovery rates up to 85% from materials previously deemed uneconomical or waste. This not only extends mine life but also slashes costs by eliminating the need for energy-intensive milling, smelting, and refining – producing 99.99% pure copper cathode directly onsite.

Benefits abound: up to 80% less water usage and 60% lower carbon emissions compared to traditional methods, addressing environmental concerns while saving time and money. If scaled successfully, Nuton could tap into vast untapped reserves, boosting RIO's production without massive new investments. Early deployments, like at Arizona's Johnson Camp mine, demonstrate its potential to recover value from waste piles, enhancing profitability and sustainability in an industry facing scrutiny over its ecological footprint.

Bottom Line

RIO recently inked a two-year collaboration with Amazon, making AWS the first customer for copper produced via Nuton at the Johnson Camp mine. This deal supplies AWS with about 30,000 tonnes of low-carbon copper over four years for its U.S. data centers, while Amazon provides cloud analytics to optimize operations.

If Nuton delivers as expected – cutting emissions and costs amid a projected 100,000-ton global shortage in 2026 – it could attract other hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google as copper prices skyrocket. With demand set to rise 50% by 2040, RIO's tech and assets make it the top copper miner to buy today.

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