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Commodities have been trading bearish for the last year, but we can see them in late stages of a higher degree bearish trend with price now approaching a strong support zone.

Commodities are actually already trying to wake up from the strong support after a potential A-B-C corrective decline from the high, or after an impulse (scenario #2). The important is that in either case, the Equal-weighted commodity index with ticker GCC is bouncing from 78,6% Fibonacci support, while the Bloomberg commodity index with ticker AW is the former wave (4) support with a potential wedge pattern.

GCC Daily Chart 

AW Daily Chart

Based on different interpretations, we assume that price can stabilize in the second half of 2023, and possibly even recover for at least a temporary period of time. At the same time, the USD can come lower, which is alos expected from an Elliott wave perspective as discussed in our webinar here.

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