Cocoa prices have been consolidating within a range since mid-May 2024, fluctuating between the levels of $10,000 and $6,770. Despite some minor rebounds, the likelihood of cocoa breaking the $6,770 support level appears high. The commodity hit this low on August 7, followed by a small bounce. However, the broader correction, which began in April 2024 when cocoa peaked at an all-time high of $11,722, is expected to persist, potentially driving prices down to $6,000 or even below $5,000 in the coming weeks.

Daily Chart Analysis

From a long-term perspective, cocoa completed a major bullish impulse wave cycle that started in September 2022 when prices were trading around $2,000. This powerful impulse wave, which aligns with Elliott Wave theory, propelled prices upward by more than 430%, eventually reaching an all-time high of $11,722 in April 2024. According to Elliott Wave principles, following such a substantial impulsive move, the market often enters a three-wave corrective phase. Cocoa is currently experiencing this corrective phase, unfolding in an a-b-c wave pattern.

In this corrective structure, waves a and b (circled) have already completed. Wave a marked the initial decline from the all-time high, while wave b offered a brief rebound. The market is now deep into wave c, the final leg of this corrective phase. Wave c tends to be the most aggressive and is expected to extend lower, potentially reaching as far as $5,000 or below before the correction concludes. This decline is a natural outcome following the massive bullish impulse, and once completed, cocoa may resume its overall upward trend or experience a large corrective bounce.

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H4 Chart Analysis

On the H4 chart, the ongoing corrective decline can be further dissected into a 5-3-5 corrective pattern, typical of wave c movements. Wave c is currently in the middle of its third sub-wave, labeled wave (iii), which is usually the strongest of the decline. Given the current momentum, it is likely that the $6,596 support level will be breached, extending the selloff initiated from the $11,722 peak. The overall target for this wave remains near the $5,000 level, where support could potentially emerge, setting the stage for either a continuation of the long-term bullish trend or another corrective bounce.

This scenario highlights the ongoing bearish momentum in cocoa prices, with key levels suggesting further downside before any significant recovery takes hold.

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