Change In The Weather. The Corn & Ethanol Report

We started off the day with Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims (12/JUN), Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (12/JUN), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (JUN) and Continuing Jobless (05/JUN), Treasury Secretary Yellen Testimony, CB Leading Index (MAY) at 9:00 A.M., EIA Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M. and 5-Year TIPS Auction at 12:00 P.M.

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On the Corn front, we have had a new weather forecast that changed the outlook of some bulls with the new forecast calling for cool and wet weather versus hot & dry conditions which was a rally killer if there was one to be had. Any sign of a short-covering rally was doused on the latest weather model. We could find support in this morning’s Ex[port Sales day. In the overnight electronic session, the July corn is currently trading 658 ½ which is 14 ½ cents lower. The trading range as been 674 ¼ to 655 ¾. If this trend continues you can expect more exports to Cuna.

On the Ethanol front, RINS have dropped to a three-month low as the White House sets blending mandate dates. Small refiners are still waiting for a Supreme Court ruling on blending. There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The July ethanol settled at 2.460 and is not showing any market at the moment with Open Interest at 20 contracts.

On the Crude Oil front, the market retreated from multi-month highs dating back to October 2018. The Fed came out with a hawkish surprise that blind-sided many investors. The U.S. dollar had its single day biggest gain in 15 months. The setback in the market should be temporary as fundamentals on supply and demand could easily compensate for a rebounding U.S. dollar. In the overnight electronic session, the July crude oil is currently trading at 7207 which is 8 points lower. The trading range has been 7229 to 7133.

On the Natural Gas front, this market has stopped in its tracks as well with change in the weather forecast. The Thomson Reuters weekly poll with 18 analysts participating estimate builds ranging from 64bcf to 76bcf with the median 73bcf. This compares to the one-year injection of 115bcf and the five-year average build of 83bcf. In the overnight electronic session, the July natural gas is currently trading at 3.224 which is .027 lower. The trading range has been 3.264 to 3.221.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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