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Is a meat recession coming?

The dismal US jobs report has ignited recession fears, with some major Wall Street banks forecasting at least three 25bps interest rate cuts this year, with the first one starting in September. Recessions typically reduce household incomes and alter diets. 

One major issue with this consumer downturn is that households have already been financially crushed by elevated inflation and high interest rates over the last few years. A weakening labor market and a downshifting economy are just icing on the cake as the consumer has depleted personal savings and maxed out credit cards. 

As previously noted, the United States Department of Agriculture recently reported beef prices at the supermarket reached a record high of $5.472 a pound in June. This one-way ticket up in prices has been primarily based on a shrinking US cattle herd to the smallest size in 73 years. 

Besides the US main equity indexes getting blasted on Friday by recession fears, cattle futures in Chicago were rattled by the slowdown, sending contracts down as much as 4% - but still trading near record highs.

Fears over a "meat recession" are growing as traders see high prices and a consumer downturn as a perfect recipe for stoking demand destruction. 

Here's more from Bloomberg: 

Cattle futures are dropping as a falling stock market prompts worries that consumers will pull back from high-priced beef. Sales of steak typically increase when equity markets rise and with stocks selling off after a weak US jobs report, prices for cattle are tracking the downturn.

Commodity research firm Hightower Report wrote in a note Friday, "There is no question the cattle market is sensitive to economic fears," adding, "Consumer beef demand is in question."

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