Should’a bought that EV! Joseph Brusuelas notes tariffs should show up in gas prices in the Midwest pretty quick, as the region gets its oil from Canada.

Source: Brusuelas (2025).

Current price is about $3/gallon.

Source: EIA.

If the current price of petroleum (WTI) is $73.51/bbl. An increase in prices of 10% due to tariffs results in a $7.35/bbl increase. This implies a 18 cent increase in gasoline prices from the tariffs, using Jim’s rule of thumb. Using Yilmazkuday’s (2021) estimate, the increase should be about 17 cents after about three months.

Thanks, Trump!

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