We kicked off the day with Fed Kugler Speech at 7:40 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM & YoY, House Price Index, and House Price Index MoM & YoY at 8:00 A.M., Fed Williams Speech at 8:05 A.M., CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Newe Home Sales MoM & YoY, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index, and Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index at 9:00 A.M., 6-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 2-Year Note Auction and Money Supply at 12:00 P.M., Cold Storage at 2:00 P.M., API Energy Stocks, Building Permits Final, and Building Permits MoM Final at 3:30 P.M.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported that the Midwest Fed National Activity Index increased to 0.18 in February, up from -0.08 in January, indicating economic growth increased during the month. The index’s production-related indicators increased by 0.19, up from 0.02 in January. Employment related indicators added 0.02 to the index but were down from 0.08 in January. The sales orders and inventory indicators were down 0.01 from February but improved slightly from a 0.04 decrease in January. Personal consumption and housing indicators were also negative contributors to the index. US tariffs and retaliation will impact future confidence in the US economy.

Photo by Waldemar on Unsplash

South American Weather Pattern Discussion

South American Forecast Next 10 Days; Rain Expands into Driest Areas of Brazil:

The South American forecast is consistent. The return of widespread showers slows early corn harvesting in Argentina, but otherwise, the South American monsoon is set to intensify in late March/early April. Safrinha corn in N Brazil benefits most, with safrinha planting expect 92-94% complete. The GFS ensemble 10-day precipitation, highlighting major crop area’s, show its to late to boost yield potential in drought stricken Rio Grande do Sul in far southern Brazil but any/all rain is welcomed there. Accumulations of 2-3” will blanket nearly all of Brazil. The arrival of this expansion of rainfall is timely following severe dryness so far in Parana, Mato Frosso do Sul and essential parts of Goias. South America will be well watered.

Central US Weather Pattern Update

Midwest Forecast wetter into Early April; Dryness Outlines HRW Belt; Warmth Expanded:

The Central US forecast into April 3^rd maintains a stagnant pattern of precipitation and warming of temps in the Plains, W Midwest, and the Delta. The binary nature of soil moisture changes in early spring and compounded by consistent heat across the Western Ag Belt, where in TX, OK, KS, and NE high readings reach the 80’s/90’s Wed-Friday. NOAA’s 7-day precipitation forecast shows soaking rainfall upward of 1.50-2.50” is projected across WI, IL, IN, and OH. This will ease the current abnormal dryness there. Similar totals recharge soil moisture just ahead of peek corn seeding in LA & MA. Ag Resources (ARC) remains unconcerned about the evolution of dryness east of the Mississippi River, but Southern and Central Plains must have missed Feb-March precipitation. Winter wheat crop stress rises in April without a pattern change.

Corn Comments & Analysis

CBOT Corn Ends Flat; Firm US/Global Cash Markets Lend Support:

CBOT corn ended firm, buoyed by stable interior US basis and as the Ukrainian fob premiums score new seasonal highs. ARC notes, it doubts speculators opt to add to existing short position ahead of next Monday’s NASS report. Whether US corn seeding intentions exit above or below 94 Mil acres are key in April . US corn remains outright cheap in the global feed marketplace, but the Brazilian market is forging its annual high. Spot corn in Brazil in mid-March rallied to $6.62/Bu, but has since fallen $.80/Bu. Corrections in Brazilian corn values are common in March. Improving weather in N Brazil is noted for a sizable winter corn harvest. The bulls and bears lack leverage. ARC doubts a trend change will occur until more is known about the intensity of Brazilian rainfall after April 15^th. Then it’ll monitor the US spring planting pace. Excessive rainfall is forecast for the southern and eastern Midwest. Sub -$.460 July, provides end users and corn call buyers for a seasonal rally. Catch up on cash sales above $4.80 May, while a bearish NASS report could pressure May corn to 44.30-$4.40. Monday’s preliminary open interest data showed corn up 237 contracts, soybeans up 1,668, and Chicago wheat up 6,293. The big gain in Chi wheat open interest argues that managed money added into a larger net short position estimated over 90,000 contracts.

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