Investors want to know: will it be recession, inflation, or both?

The unfortunate answer is that it will be mostly a surprise because surprise is the main theme of a war cycle, and the world is in the 2021-2025 war cycle now.

When the main theme is surprising, the main assets to own are of course gold and silver. 

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weekly gold chart.  

While a summer rally for gold looks ready to begin, the most likely time for a major move higher above the key $2000/ounce zone is early 2023. Here’s why:

By then, the BRICS coalition may include Argentina, and will likely have negated most sanctions-oriented harm to Russian citizens. This, while millions of Western Europeans will be skipping meals and told to forage in the forest for sticks to heat their homes….

All in the name of their supposed freedom. Significant protests are likely forthcoming. 

In addition, the US mid-term elections will be complete, likely leaving most of America even more divided and angry than it is now. Rather than fade, school shootings and random attacks on children and elderly citizens could intensify as more citizens “snap” mentally.

Politicians may consider sanctions on China to “save Taiwan”, as a way to reduce US citizen anger and tension, but the amount of usable sand left in the US government’s scapegoating hourglass appears minimal.

All signs on the war cycle roadmap point towards January 2023 as a time of significant danger, surprise, and a major upside breakout for gold!

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 weekly copper stocks ETF chart.  

The broadening action suggests a situation that is… out of control. 

Inflation could create an upside breakout and collapsing growth could make it to the downside. Neither situation is good.

The gargantuan BASF complex with 200 chemical plants in Germany could close as the US-led sanctions scheme goes ever more awry. Even if BASF stays open, many other factories in Europe could be shuttered (some permanently)… and this could happen while oil and gas prices begin a fresh surge higher. 

That could produce protests that become riots and the riots could morph into outright civil war.

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 XME metals and mining stocks ETF.  

This ETF is a good way to play both industrial and precious metals inflation… as well as a possible stock market rally. 

I own it, like it, have more buy orders at $40, and the huge bull wedge and Stochastics buy signals suggest that investors with none could buy right now.

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 TQQQ US stock market chart. 

 At my swing trade newsletter, we’re long and strong the “TQ’s” and it looks like a winning trade. We trade leveraged GDX via GDXU and GDXD also, and at $99/mth, swing traders love the action.  

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FXI Chinese stock market chart. 

 As the Chinese government ramps up debt, spending, and money printing to boost the lockdown-ravaged economy, it’s unlikely to have much effect on anything but inflation and the stock market. 

That’s going to get a lot of Chinese citizens very excited, very quickly, about gold.

What about silver?  

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SIL silver miners ETF chart. 

I’ve highlighted all my buy and sell signals since March 2020 and the current one is particularly exciting!

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An enticing double bottom pattern is in play. 

Stoploss enthusiasts could take note of the $27 area and place a stop just under there. Also, the 14,7,7 series Stochastics oscillator is verging on a buy signal in the oversold zone and RSI has already turned higher.

Why is silver suddenly poised to significantly outperform gold?  Most likely, it’s because of the sanctions-oriented inflation. It’s hurting the poorest citizens the most.

If the sanctions cause citizen deaths from lack of heating fuel, riots are likely. The poorest citizens can’t afford gold, so they will buy silver for their protection.

The physical market bid-ask spreads on silver bars, coins, and rounds have dropped. The richest gold bugs should consider also buying some silver, as their ode to the “little guys and gals” living in this ever-crazier world!