BRN is trying to stabilize above the $80/bbl psychological level following the confusion sparked by the OPEC+ meeting on Wednesday.

Despite the OPEC+ announcement of it’s new 900k bbl/day supply cuts, investors have remained uncertain on whether these reductions will be fully taking place as they are being introduced on a “voluntary” basis.

Previously implemented voluntary cuts (~1.3M bbl/day), by Russia and Saudi Arabia, were also extended into Q1 2024.

Adding to the downside:

• The demand side pressures are still relevant as IEA is forecasting a slowdown in 2024 oil demand
• Angola might produce larger quantities despite it’s OPEC quota
• U.S. crude production continues to grow (+1.7% in Sep.)

However, any changes in the 2024 demand outlook or a sudden escalation in the Middle East may significantly affect oil prices.
 

From the technical perspective…

• 100-period SMA has moved above its shorter counterpart (50-period SMA), forming a “death cross” pattern and signaling a potential for a bearish market
• $80/bbl psychological level may be set to provide an immediate support
• To the upside, the 21-period SMA (at $81.369/bbl) may act as a strong immediate resistance level

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