Brent oil has been able to extend its rebound from the $80/bbl mark despite rising US crude inventories this week.

Though capped by widely-watched moving averages in recent cycles, forays below that psychologically-important level have proven fleeting in recent months, with oil bulls perhaps also drawing confidence from the series of higher lows posted since December.

With Brent being forced into a triangle pattern, it suggests a looming break-out over the near-term.

• Brent could be kept below $80/bbl, barring any supply-side intervention, if the Fed is forced by the incoming US economic data to revert to the larger-than-usual 50 basis-point hikes or push the US rates to peak higher than the market-forecasted 5.34% by July.
   
• However, in order for Brent prices to see a sustained presence above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), that would require a significant subsiding of fears over a still-aggressive Fed.

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