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The US stock market did not trade yesterday due to the US Independence Day celebrations.

On Friday, the dollar index held near 105, hovering at three-week lows as investors await the release of an important US jobs report expected to show further signs of a cooling labor market, supporting the view that the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates. Earlier this week, data indicated an unexpected contraction in service sector activity and disappointing US private sector employment figures, supporting a dovish view of Fed policy. Markets currently estimate the probability that the Fed will begin cutting rates in September at around 73%.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) fell below $55,000 on Friday, hitting its lowest level since late February, and has lost about 13% this week, which analysts attributed to further liquidation by leveraged investors. The collapse has also been exacerbated by concerns that the payment by bankrupt Japanese exchange Mt. Gox of more than $9 billion in bitcoins to some 127,000 creditors is likely to trigger massive profit-taking. Analysts speculate that markets are trying to get ahead of the lenders' flows, causing prices to plummet. Moreover, billionaire Bitcoin investor Peter Thiel recently revealed that he sold most of his shares due to expectations of increased volatility. The second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum (ETH/USD), also fell about 16% this week despite expectations that US regulators will approve the first Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds later this month.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose yesterday. Germany's DAX (DE40) added 0.41%, France's CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.83%, Spain's IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.09%, and the UK's FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.86%.

Polling companies predict that Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement Nationale will not win an absolute majority in Sunday's French legislative elections. Four polls released on Wednesday and Thursday suggest the far-right group and its allies could win between 190 and 250 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly. That is well below the 289 seats that would allow it to pass bills and push its agenda easily. A second round of snap elections will be held on Sunday.

The UK also voted yesterday. The exit polls' results are clear: Labor will rule with a significant majority for the next five years. Analysts see this political shift as favorable for the British pound, equities, and investment in the UK as a whole, as it revives the UK's reputation as a safe-haven.

Swiss inflation unexpectedly declined, which is encouraging for Swiss National Bank officials who have lowered borrowing costs for two consecutive meetings. Consumer prices in June were 1.3% from a year earlier. That's less than economists had expected and below May's 1.4%, the fastest pace this year. A 0.2% year-on-year decline in the cost of goods contributed to the slowdown, while services rose by 2.4%. Core inflation also fell to 1.1%, defying expectations of an acceleration.

WTI crude oil prices held near $84 per barrel on Friday and were set to rise for the fourth consecutive week as lower US crude inventories and signs of strong seasonal demand supported oil prices. The US crude prices were up about 3% this week. The US EIA reported that US crude oil inventories fell by 12.2 million barrels last week, well above expectations of a 680,000 barrel decline. In addition, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns over oil supplies following reports that Israel killed a senior Hezbollah commander, prompting Hezbollah to retaliate near the border.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan's Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.82%, China's FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.08%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.28%, and Australia's ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.19%.

Japan's index of leading economic indicators, which gauges the economic outlook several months ahead based on data such as job offers and consumer sentiment, rose to 111.1 in May 2024 from a final reading of 110.9 in the previous month, the lowest in three months.

• S&P 500 (US500) 5,537.02 0 (0%)
• Dow Jones (US30) 39,308.00 0 (0%)
• DAX (DE40) 18,450.48 +75.95 (+0.41%)
• FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,241.26 +70.14 (+0.86%)
• USD Index 105.13 −0.28 (−0.26%)
   

Important events today:

• German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

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