At the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.06%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.51%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.88%. Stock indices traded mixed during the shortened holiday session, with the S&P 500 (US500) and NASDAQ (US100) setting new record highs. The US stock indices are closed today due to the Independence Day holiday in the United States.

The minutes of the June 11–12 FOMC meeting showed that officials do not believe it is appropriate to lower borrowing costs until more information becomes available to give them more confidence that inflation is moving toward its 2% target. Markets are pricing in a 25bp chance of a 9% rate cut at the July 30–31 FOMC meeting and a 70% chance of a rate cut at the next meeting on September 17–18.

The June US jobs change from ADP rose by 150,000, which was weaker than expectations of 165,000. US weekly initial jobless claims rose by 4,000 to 238,000, indicating a weaker labor market than expectations of 235,000. Weekly jobless claims rose by 26,000 to a 2-year high of 1.858 million, indicating a weaker labor market than expectations of 1.840 million. The US trade deficit widened to a 19-month high of $75.1 billion in May from $74.5 billion in April. Amid such negative data, the US dollar fell to a 3-week low yesterday.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) prices fell back below the key psychological mark of $60,000, hitting a two-month low as the largest digital asset failed to sustain its recent rise. Analysts point to the potential start of payments to Mt. Gox creditors as the likely main culprit. The bankrupt bitcoin exchange must pay out more than $9 billion in bitcoins to some 127,000 creditors who have been waiting more than a decade for their funds to be repaid, likely triggering profit-taking among investors.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany's DAX (DE40) added 1.16%, France's CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.24% higher, Spain's IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 1.32%, and the UK's FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.61%.

ECB Governing Council representative Stournaras said yesterday that two more ECB rate cuts this year are reasonable. In addition, the May Eurozone Producer Price Index fell more than expected, which is dovish for ECB policy. Monetary policy easing is a positive for index strength and a negative for the euro.

Parliamentary elections are taking place in the UK today. According to polls, the center-left Labor Party will win a significant victory. Economists believe this may have a positive impact on the British economy.

Switzerland's unemployment rate in June 2024 was 2.3%, seasonally unchanged from the previous two months. Switzerland's annual inflation rate fell to 1.3% in June 2024, down from May's four-month high and market estimates of 1.4%.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) held near $30.5 an ounce on Thursday after rising more than 3% in the previous session, staying near a two-week high as softer-than-expected US economic data reinforced expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Silver is a key component for solar panels and other renewable energy tools due to its unrivaled conductivity and applications in photovoltaic cells. Meanwhile, the economic outlook for China, a major consumer, remains highly uncertain.

WTI crude oil prices fell to around $83.5 a barrel on Thursday amid signs of a possible slowdown in the US economy, the largest oil-consuming country, amid recent weak economic data. The US service sector contracted at the fastest pace in four years, jobless claims rose for the ninth straight week, and private sector jobs grew at a slower pace in June. Meanwhile, EIA data showed US crude oil inventories fell sharply by 12.2 million barrels in the last week of June, the biggest decline in a year and well above estimates.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan's Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.26%, China's FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.21%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.18%, and Australia's ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.28%.

Australia's trade surplus in goods narrowed to A$5.77 billion in May 2024 from a downward revised A$6.03 billion in the previous month, below market expectations of A$6.68 billion, as exports rose less than imports.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,537.02 +28.01 (+0.51%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,308.00 −23.85 (−0.061%)

DAX (DE40) 18,374.53 +210.47 (+1.16%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,171.12 +49.92 (+0.61%)

USD Index 105.36 −0.36 (−0.34%)

Important events today:

• – Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
• – Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
• – Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
• – UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
• – UK General Election (All Day).

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