Base Metals - Bear Market Rally?

Base Metals and Base Metals Miners: Not convinced that base metals are embarking on a new sustained long term uptrend. Refer to the weekly chart below of the DBB, which comprises a basket of base metals. The reasons for doubts are as follows:

1. Price has formed a weekly shooting star doji, which indicates a top (bearish)
2. Price is just below a massive overhead supply of bag-holders, who would love to sell and get own even.
3. Price appears to be back testing the neckline of a H&S, with measured move projection which is lower than the last low.
4. On Balance Volume has been trending lower for the last 3 to 4 years, with no significant uptick on this rally.
5. The global economy has collapsed, so the question is, where will the demand for base metals come from? 

On this basis, until we see DBB weekly price closing above the neckline and above the overhead supply, the base metals and base metals mining sector rally is questionable, and could simply be a bear market rally, within a secular bear market.

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Beating Buffett 1 month ago Member's comment

Agree completely.