At Record Highs, Copper "Is The New Oil" & Could Be A Double From Here

On the heels of record highs in iron ore and steel earlier this week, and as commodity demand soars on the back of economies emerging from COVID-19 lockdowns (demand) and various supply chain/operational issues (supply); copper prices surged to an all-time high this morning as Chinese investors unleashed fresh demand following a five-day holiday.

Source: Bloomberg

Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone said that “the reaction of copper to $10,000-a-ton resistance may set the inflation vs. deflation tone for years.” As Mining.com reports, the reopening of major industrial economies is sparking a surge across commodities markets from corn to lumber, with tin climbing above $30,000 a ton for the first time since 2011 on Thursday.

Copper has gained 28.1% since the end of last year and is up around 114.9% from its 2020 low, as it was hit in March 2020 amid the global economic fallout.

“The long-term prospects for metals prices are ‘too good’ and point to higher prices in the next few years,” Commerzbank AG analyst Daniel Briesemann told Bloomberg. “The decarbonization trends in many countries — which include switching to electric vehicles and expanding wind and solar power — are likely to generate additional demand for metals.”

Trading house Trafigura Group, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America also expect copper to extend gains. “Copper could spike to $13,000 a ton in coming months, partially over low inventories,” Bank of America said. “Copper prices will remain strong as a continued rebound in global PMIs bolstered investors’ bullish sentiment,” Citi Futures Co. said in a note.

On the supply side, Peru reported a 19% jump in March copper output, potentially offering some relief to tight global supplies. However, a bill to dramatically increase taxes in Chile, the biggest copper-producing nation, threatens to curtail future output and supercharged the metal’s rally even further.

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