The Manheim Used Vehicle Index showed that wholesale used car prices declined 0.5% in July, with the index easing to 207.4. Compared to a year ago, the index was 2.9% higher, marking the 5^th consecutive month of year-over-year gains, ands annualized gains in 8 of the last 9 months. The index adjusts used car prices at dealer auctions for variables such as age, milage, vehicle types saw sharply mixed results. Luxury vehicles marked the largest increase over a year ago, gaining 6.8%, SUV’s were up 2.3%, while pickup truck prices increased 0.4%. Compact car prices were down 4.4%, while EV prices were up 8.3% from last year. The EV price premium to non-EV’s relaxed slightly, but was still $8,007 or 43% higher than non-EV’s. Manheim estimated that retail used vehicle sales in July were up 2% from a year ago, while new car sales are estimated to be 6.6% higher.

Photo by Waldemar on Unsplash

Central US Weather Pattern Update

Midwest Forecast Warm/Wet Next 10 Days; Drought Again in Plains, Eastern Midwest:

The Central US forecast is consistent with prior runs if slightly wetter in IL and IN into August 16^th . More rain is desired in TN/KY, but otherwise the coming pattern is viewed as conducive to record corn & soybean yields. It also remains that a major jump in Canadian soil moisture lies ahead. Drought now covers only 3% of US corn & soybean planted area., and is largely centered on fringe producing areas of western NE and the PNW. Additional easing occurred in the last week across KS, NE, and northern IL. What remains of abnormal dryness in IL & IN is likely to be eliminated as ridge-riding storms impact the region Aug 12-16. Otherwise, the major forecasting models agree that soaking rainfall of .75-3.00” favor the Dakotas, eastern KS, MO, IA, western IL and WI Sun-Tues. A pattern of warmth will continue into August 22^nd, with areas east of the Midwest favored. High temps from NE to OH will exist in the mid-to-upper 80’s. Cooler readings are desired, but extreme heat is not indicated outside of TX & OK, where highs are projected to reach 95-99 degrees. In the Northern Plains and Midwest,, this warmth will be accompanied by active showers. Precipitation accumulation in the 6-10 day period is projected at .50-1.50” in ND, MN, IA, WI, IL & IN. Overall, rainfall of 2+ impacts all but parts of TN, KY, and OH over the next two weeks. Last year’s rapid soil moisture loss in the second half of August is likely to be avoided. Very early September climate guidance favors the N Plains and Great Lakes region with a pattern of normal/above normal rainfall near normal.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s updated ENSO forecast, released last week, maintains rigidly neutral outlook for equatorial Pacific Ocean temps into January 2026. Whether El Nino or La Nina is present is key for climate patterns in Argentina, Australia & Southeast Asia, and that neither will develop this year is important. Supply dislocation is needed to tighten US/global crop balance sheet, but most probably normal weather occurs in South America and Australia into late year. The simple lack of El Nino or La Nina also correlates with wheat yield performance. Recall it’s weather from August to early October that determines Argentine wheat yields. An extension of neutral ENSO conditions into December bodes similarly well for Argentine row crop production. Recall La Nina is typically bad for Argentine weather and corn/soybean yields. El Nino provides the climate pattern that results in corn and soybean yields 15-18% above trend. Neutral ENSO is not as beneficial as El Nino, but most often Argentine corn yield is near to slightly above trend in years neither La Nina nor El Nino are present in December. Trend corn yield in Argentina in 2025/26 – even assuming acreage is shifted to soybeans – allows for a crop of 50-52 MMT’s, and exports of 35+MMT’s. USDA estimates exports in crop year 24/25 at 34.5 MMT’s. Large US yields and rising US stocks are known and are being priced into the market. It’s the probable lack of South American climate threats that keeps grain markets deflated and keeps strategy os selling rallies/forward carries intact.

Corn Comments & Analysis

CBOT Corn Bounces as Chart Oversold; Crop Tours Awaited:

Dec corn settled higher for the first time in 5 sessions. Futures were deeply oversold Wednesday with extreme relative strength (RSI) are always reconciled. Strong new US export sales provided additional support in yesterday’s action. Exporters in the week ending July 31^st sold a net 125 Mil Bu of corn for new crop delivery. Cumulative 25/26 export commitments sit at 464 Mil Bu, double last year and the largest since 2021. However, Ag Resources (ARC) notes demand has been confined to traditional buyers and likely based on outrunning potential retaliatory tariffs. Additionally, ARC pegs total 25/26 exports 2.8-2.9 Bil Bu (a new record) are needed to pull US end stocks below 2.0 Bil Bu. A recovery was due, but key is whether Dec can sustain its recovery above $4.12-$4.15. ARC maintains a strategy of using chart-based bounces to catch up on hedges. It’s the wrong time of year for lows to be scored, and current prices do not account for a national yield of 185+ BPA.

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