MAR CORN

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To say the least, we’ve had an extremely volatile 1^st two days of Feb as Trump at first implemented 25% tariffs on Mexico & Canada & 10% on China – only to delay the Mex/Can for a month yesterday morning & possibly the same for China as Trump & Xi talk today! The mkt reacted in kind – breaking 25 cents off the highs Mon – only to recoup all those losses since Mon am – with Mar Corn currently challenging its recent $5.00 highs! Helping the gains is a sharply lower US $! It makes one wonder if the tariffs weren’t simply a bargaining chip all along! The other supportive fundamental is of course adverse South American weather – way too dry in Arg – reducing their production & too wet in Brazil delaying their harvest! and cumulative export inspections are running 25% over 2024!

MAR BEANS

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Mar Beans also recovered sharply from the early Mon losses with the Mex/Can tariff delay but China is more important to the beans & the fact that the retaliatory measures taken by China were limited in nature & seen as almost an olive branch offering by China – and that helped beans rally as well! Finally, Trump & China President Xi are talking today & that may further mitigate the situation – much like Trumps conversation with the Presidents of Mexico & Canada seemed to mend their differences Mon! Export inspections are a solid 15% over 2024 & the weather in S/A continues to be problematical! All this adds up to a Mar Bean contract today challenging its Jan highs!

MAR WHT

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A dry, cold forecast for the central plains, tariff delays, strong rallies in corn & beans & export inspections running 24% over 2024 – all contributed to Mar Wht rallying to its highest level since 11-21-24! A weekly close over the 530-570 congestion that Mar Wht has been confined to for 2 months would be very positive!

APRIL CAT

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All of a sudden, the one-time bullish juggernaut has corrected $10 (207-197) in just one short week – as the massive fund longs have been heavily liquidating! The tipping point happened yesterday when despite the tariff delay, April Cat still closed lower! The record high mkt finally found a level that discouraged demand! The current break should support at 196 but mkt is still plenty concerned about future tariffs!

APRIL HOGS

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Much like its ag counterparts, Apl Hogs have ridden the “tariff roller-coaster” the last 2 days – plummeting down the limit Mon & today nearing recovering all those losses to close down only 50 cents for the week! With Trump deferring the Mex/Can tariffs Mon & today talking with China’s President, the hog mkt is hopeful that its badly needed export flow won’t be interrupted! Plus demand-wise, pork has a big economic advantage over beef in the supermarkets!

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