MAY WHEAT

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After a 50 cent break since mid-March (575-525), May Wht came into the Mar 31 acres & Stocks Report quite oversold & was rewarded with the 2^nd lowest acres since 1919 at 45.35ma with stocks neutral at 1237mb! That was enough for a 2-day25 cent rally! As well, poor conditions in the SW plains threaten the Winter Wheat crop! The Black Sea is also quite dry & the Russian Wheat Crop has been lowered to 80.3 mmt! Cumulative export inspections are running 16% over 2024! The mkt feels like its low is in but is waiting on reciprocal tariff announcements tomorrow!

MAY CORN

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On yesterday’s Acres/Stocks Report, Corn acres came in at 95.32ma – on the high end of the range but widely expected by the trade! Stocks were friendly at 8151mb (8352-ly)! So the mkt rallied on the #’s – as pundits felt the #’s were dialed in & friendly! Mon inspections were strong at 1.614mmt & US corn is the cheapest in the world! Export inspections are running 30% over 2024! Yesterday, Corn open interest jumped 35,000 contracts! The mkt is anxiously awaiting the tariff announcements on Wed!

MAY BEANS

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Yesterday’s report lowered bean acres 3.5ma from 2024 to 83.76ma but raised stocks to 1910mb (1895-exp)! So Mon, the mkt traded lower on the stocks but today it has traded higher off the reduced acreage! Brazil’s harvest is 82% in! The mkt – like all the other mkts – is awaiting the Trump Tariff announcements coming out tomorrow – & then will refocus on the US weather going into planting – which has been very dry in many areas due to a snowless winter!

APRIL CAT

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The month-long $20 rally in Apl Cat (190-210) has stalled out – as the mkt has consolidated within $3 of the highs! Headwinds winds have been provided by the Trump Tariff announcements tomorrow & month/quarter-end evening up yesterday – and tailwinds are supporting as the outdoor-barbeque season – the best demand period of the year – is right around the corner! So, exports are hanging in the balance while domestic demand will be very strong!

APRIL HOGS

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For most of March, April Hogs have been locked into a tight trading range (85-88) supported by the upcoming strong “cook-out” demand period & pork’s natural price advantage over beef in the supermarket! Topping out the rallies is the uncertain tariff situation with Canada & Mexico – big buyers of US pork! Clarity on this issue should be forthcoming in the next few days! Another “tariff postponement” would of course be very positive for April Hogs!

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