Photo by Jesse Gardner on Unsplash

GFS proposes Tropical Activity in an 11-15 day cycle. The Central US forecast stays wet across the E Plains/W Midwest through Wednesday, with precipitation confines to S Plains/ Delta next week. Coming dryness bodes favorable for areas of !a & Upper Midwest plagued by excess water. Needed rain is offered to Kansas June 8-13. The Tropics will be watched closely beginning in mid-June. The GFS and AI-based models project a tropical system work through the Western Caribbean and into Florida June 16^th . Confidence in details is low but this year’s record warm Atlantic/Gulf provides the ingredients for a string of intense showers/hurricanes in summer/early autumn. North American upper air patterns will be more changeable as the tropics activate in late June. This is scary because the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR’s) are low and are for a reason, like an active hurricane season and other Act of God disasters. The SPR’s were not put there to score Brownie points for a FAILED energy policy in attempt to bring down gas prices. A novel approach would be to drill for more US oil in US soil. Another downer on the administration’s war on energy you will pay roughly 25% higher to air-condition your home in the dog days of summer. The CBOT grain futures are coming in weaker on the ongoing fall in energy prices and the initially highly rated US corn crop. 75% of the US corn crop was rated good-to-excellent, the best in years. 91% of the US corn crop planted with soybean seeding advancing to 78% with 55% of the crop emerged. NASS will release its initial soybean crop condition next Monday, and hear again, high ratings are expected. The US winter wheat harvest has started in earnest with 33% of Texas and 22% of Oklahoma already cut. The harvest is expected to reach Southern Kansas during mid-June. Monday’s preliminary CBOT open interest data showed corn surging 24,353 contracts, soybeans 6,652 contracts and Chicago wheat 607 contracts. This highlights new net speculative short grain positions. The breakdown falling below key moving averages has funds adding to net short CBOT positions.

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