A Quick Look At Gold And US Dollar (Going In Tandem)

On September 30, 2018 I published a short piece on the US dollar. The conclusion was as follows: "If something cannot go up pushed by hordes of optimists, it is supposed to go down. Summarizing – I am bearish on the US dollar in the medium term”

After nearly one month the situation has not changed too much. Over that period:

  • The bears (big speculators betting on a weaker US dollar) increased their bets by 1.5 thousand contracts
  • The bulls (big speculators betting on a stronger US dollar) added 2.4 thousand contracts to their bullish bets
  • As a result, the total balance was positive for the bulls – a net long position held by big speculators in US dollar index futures has risen by 0.9 thousand contracts

As a result, the average speculator trading US dollar index futures is overly optimistic about the US currency but the problem is that this huge optimism has only marginal impact on the greenback itself – since September 30, 2018 the US dollar has strengthened by a mere 0.7%. I am not surprised – if everybody is in one camp, most probably the opposite happens.

What is more, over that period the gold has strengthened as well (by 2.7%) so we have quite an interesting situation where the gold (red arrow) and the US dollar (green arrow) are going in the same direction:

Source: Stockcharts.com

It has to be also noted that the excessive optimism among the speculators trading US dollar index futures is accompanied by extreme pessimism among their fellows trading gold futures. As a result, there is an extremely positive mix of sentiment, supporting a bullish thesis on gold and the precious metals market. 

Disclaimer: This article is not an investment advice. I am not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content from here be used or interpreted as a recommendation for ...

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