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The year 2026 begins with structural fragility masked by markets that are still under anesthesia. In the very short term, the first question is whether short volatility trading will come to an end. After a historically long period of risk compression, the market is entering 2026 without any real safety net. Volatility has been crushed to support the indices, but this regime is reaching saturation point. The danger is not a slow and orderly correction, but a sudden break in the pattern, precisely because protections have not been put in place upstream.

Short volatility trading is now the main mechanism explaining why markets are holding up despite the accumulation of fragilities. This pattern has now been in place for 28 consecutive sessions, which is exceptional in terms of its duration. In practical terms, the mechanism has almost become routine. Every morning, we often see an upward gap on the VIX (VIX futures), linked to a little overnight concern, residual macro flows, or simply the opening of still poorly balanced books. This initial movement gives the illusion of a resurgence of risk. But very quickly, once the US session gets underway, volatility is methodically sold off.

This sale of volatility is not emotional, it is structural. Short vol desks, systematic strategies, and positive gamma dealers begin to intervene. As the VIX recedes, options become cheaper, which automatically triggers buying flows on the indices: either because put sellers no longer need to hedge, or because market makers, in positive gamma, buy dips and sell rallies to remain neutral. This intraday erosion of the VIX acts as a permanent cushion, preventing corrections from amplifying.
 

The result is a market that may be fundamentally fragile, even hesitant, but remains artificially buoyant. As long as volatility declines over the course of the trading session, the indices hold up, even without volume or conviction. This pattern does not create a real uptrend; it simply prevents a decline. This is why we often see markets stagnating near their highs, with little participation, but unable to correct significantly.

The key point, and this is where the risk accumulates, is that this type of control pushes back stress without eliminating it. Each additional session reinforces the short position and reduces the available coverage. As long as the pattern of “VIX rising in the morning, VIX crashing in the afternoon” works, the regime holds. But on the day that erosion stops — or worse, when the VIX continues to rise despite attempts to sell — the mechanism reverses abruptly. After 26 consecutive sessions, it is not the market's rise that is impressive, but the system's dependence on this infusion of sold volatility.

In the background, tensions with China also remain another key factor that will have to be resolved one way or another. Restrictions on supply chains, and in particular the ban or increased control of silver exports, are a reminder that strategic metals are no longer mere commodities, but geopolitical tools. This context reinforces the systemic dimension of the precious metals market, far beyond a simple inflationary or cyclical interpretation.

Premiums on silver in China are rising back to historically high levels, which is an extremely strong signal of the real state of the physical market. These premiums reflect a growing imbalance between locally available supply and demand, against a backdrop of supply constraints, tight physical flows, and stricter export controls. This type of situation is never stable over time: these premiums will have to be resolved at the beginning of the year, one way or another. Either through an upward adjustment in international prices to rebalance flows to Asia, or through a forced slowdown in demand if access to the metal becomes too costly or too restricted. Historically, this kind of tension on Chinese premiums does not normalize gradually; it is resolved by a visible movement in price or volume. In other words, the physical silver market is sending a clear message: the current situation is not sustainable, and the resolution of these premiums could become one of the major catalysts at the beginning of the year.
 

2026 will also be a pivotal year for cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. The crypto system is now large enough to be systemic, but not necessarily robust enough to withstand a major shock. Bitcoin is at the heart of this equation: above certain thresholds, the narrative of resilience holds; below them, particularly in the event of a break below critical levels around $82,000, the question of liquidity and confidence would arise abruptly. Stress on bitcoin would not be confined to the crypto ecosystem: it would have direct repercussions on technology stocks, which are strongly correlated with global liquidity dynamics.
 

In this context, artificial intelligence is also entering a moment of truth. In 2025, the first signs of pressure on CAPEX began to appear. In 2026, the question became central: can the market continue to price in an ideal scenario, with infinite growth in investment, or will it demand concrete returns on capital? The AI cycle is shifting from a narrative of expansion to a test of profitability, and this transition is rarely painless for valuations.

Against this backdrop, mining companies, gold and silver occupy a paradoxical position. Their potential for differentiation is real, but it remains conditional on a clear and deliberate rotation of capital. Until this rotation takes place, the sector remains trapped by the same liquidity constraints, the same global algorithms, and the same forced sales as the rest of the equity market. For precious metals to truly stand out, a disconnect is necessary.

Paradoxically, this disconnect can only come from a systemic shock. This is precisely what the market fears today, but it is also what the precious metals sector needs in order to assert itself as an asset class in its own right, rather than simply a sub-segment of equity risk. In other words, 2026 will be a year of truth: either the system absorbs the shock and reconfigures itself, or it breaks down. And it is in this rupture, rather than in continuity, that the real rotation of capital will take place.

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