Cobalt
My last post put Cobalt into a general value area. Now let's look at the supply/demand. This is tricky since it depends on a forecast of electric vehicle demand. Here's my best estimate. Just remember that this is subject to wide ranges.
'000 tonnes of refined metal equivalent
2017 | 2025 | |
DEMAND | ||
Batteries | 38 | 117 |
Superalloys | 35 | 44 |
Tools etc. | 21 | 14 |
Others | 42 | 48 |
Total | 136 | 223 |
SUPPLY | ||
Existing Mines | 120 | 110 |
New Glencore/ERG | 44 | |
Other New Mine | 11 | |
New Artisanal | 12 | |
Recycling | 13 | 22 |
Total | 133 | 199 |
BALANCE | -3 | -24 |
So there's about 24 K tonnes that has to be satisfied by new mines or additional recycling that have not yet been committed. I think that this can be done without a major price rise. OTOH, it's hard to see the price go down much unless there is a change in the EV outlook. If it did, the necessary new supply would evaporate.
My best guess is that Cobalt will move in a wide band for the next few years, with no major bull or bear market. We are probably near the bottom of the range.
Disclaimer: This is for education only. I am not recommending anyone follow me in any trading/investing I do. If you follow someone else's trades without doing your own research, you will ...
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Where's your last article about cobalt?