Stock photo by Vecteezy
 

The Government of Canada announced a new climate goal, setting a target to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 45% to 50% by 2035, on a 2005 basis.

While the government described the new goal as “the next step” in achieving its net zero by 2050, the target would represent only a minor reduction compared to Canada’s current 2030 goal, and falls below the 50% – 55% ambition recommended by the government-appointed Net-Zero Advisory Body as required to achieve the 2050 target.

In a statement announcing the release of the new goal, the government described the 2035 target as “a progression beyond the 2030 target,” that “is also realistic about Canada’s national circumstances.”

The establishment of the new 2035 target follows the launch in 2020 by the government of a goal to reach net zero GHG emissions by 2050, which was subsequently enshrined into law in 2021 through the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act, which also introduced a requirement to set five-year national emissions reduction targets, 10 years in advance, in support of that goal.

Canada is also required under its Paris Agreement obligations to set 5-year emissions reduction targets, or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the agreement’s ambition to limit global temperature increase to well below 2° C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5° C. Canada submitted its last NDC in 2021, with a target to cut emissions by 40% – 45% by 2030, on a 2005 base.

The new target will form the basis of Canada’s upcoming NDC, due to be submitted next year, alongside a description of the measures the country will take to reach its new interim goal.

The 2021 legislation also established the Net-Zero Advisory Body, mandated to provide the government with advice on the most likely pathways to achieve net zero by 2050 and on interim emissions reduction targets on the 2050 pathway. Earlier this year, the NZAB released its recommendation for the new goal, calling for the government to set a target to reduce emissions by 50% – 55% by 2035.

Following the release of the 2035 target, the NZAB released a statement, warning that the lower end of the new goal “The lower range of the government’s target risks Canada’s ability to stay on track for net-zero emissions.”

The NZAB added:

“Our modelling and analysis showed that targets below 50% will put Canada behind on its legislated objective of net-zero emissions by mid-century. Postponing action means requiring even deeper decarbonization efforts in the future, which could bring higher risks and costs.”

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