Sitting heavy on support at $26,687.

My previous BTC/USD signal on 15^th May was not triggered, as there was no bearish price action when the resistance level identified at $27,316 was first reached.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $26,687, $26,264, or $26,003.
• Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $27,230 or $28,070.
• Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous BTC/USD analysis on 15^th May that the price was contained within a wide, long-term bearish price channel and the resistance level at $27,316 looked very strong. Therefore, I thought that this level would be the pivotal point of the day.

I was correct about the general bearishness, but I wasn’t correct about $27,316 being especially pivotal that day.

The technical picture has changed very little, we see the wide long-term bearish price channel continuing to hold and the price continuing to look heavy, although the supportive area below $27k has continued to hold again and again. However, the level looks ready to break down, and when the breakdown finally happens, as it has been a while coming, it will likely be quite strong.

If we get two consecutive lower hourly closes below $26,591 this could be a good signal for a short trade.

The FOMC minutes are unlikely to influence the price much later today when they are released.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Concerning the US Dollar, there will be a release of FOMC Meeting Minutes at 7pm London time.

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