My previous BTC/USD signal on 10th April was not triggered as there was no bullish price action when the support level at $81,203 was first reached that day.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades must be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $81,203, $78,079, or $74,725.
• Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $86,215 or $88,958.
• Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
 

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous BTC/USD forecast last Thursday that I saw the support level of $74,725 and the resistance level at $84,612 as likely to be strong.

I was wrong about the resistance level but there was no short trade set up there anyway.

The technical picture now is showing a weakly bullish consolidation below $86,215. Bitcoin has recovered in line with other risky assets like stocks, but markets will now be driven by what happens with the new US tariffs and other factors will now be so important. Bitcoin is almost certain to move in line with the US stock market.

The price seems to be running out of bullish momentum every time it gets near $86,215, so there might be a good opportunity for a short trade here.

If the price gets established above that level, that will be a bullish sign, especially if US stock markets are rising too.

There is nothing of high importance due today regarding Bitcoin or the US Dollar.

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