My previous BTC/USD signal last Thursday was not triggered, as there was no bullish price action when the price first reached the nearest support level.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $91,250, $87,972, or $84,531.
• Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $95,038, $96,860, or $100,306.
• Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous BTC/USD forecast on 27^th February that Bitcoin was making a strong bullish move, but as I was generally bearish, I was conflicted as I did not see the price as likely to make a good bearish setup that day.

This was not a good call, as the price made a bearish turn after printing a clear lower resistance level and fell to a fresh multi-month low below the round number at $80,000.

The next day, the price did make a strong bullish reversal from the area below $80,000. The price consolidated for a while and was then given another boost by President Trump’s announcement of the creation of a strategic crypto reserve, which will presumably see the US government purchase Bitcoin, potentially creating demand which should make the price more bullish.

Despite this apparent tailwind, I am pessimistic over Bitcoin’s bullish prospects. This is because Bitcoin basically rises and falls in accordance with risk-on sentiment, and sentiment these days is mostly risk-off.

Bitcoin might go on to make a new record high some time from now, but I strongly doubt this will happen any time soon, strategic reserve or not.

I would be happy to take a short trade from a bearish reversal which might set up later at the resistance level of $95,038.

The price looks as if it is going to break below the support level at $91,250, which would be a bearish sign, and indicate a further fall to the $88,000 would be likely.

There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either Bitcoin or the US Dollar.

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