My previous BTC/USD signal on June 29, produced a profitable short trade from the bearish rejection of the resistance level at $31k.

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Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $30,605, $30,068, or $29,424.
• Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $30,857 or $31,088.
• Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous BTC/USD analysis on 29^th June that after reaching the $30k area a few days ago, the price had failed to advance further and has made a bullish consolidation. I thought that there could be either a long or short trading opportunity:

1. Long if the price makes a bullish bounce off the $30k area with a fast rebound.
2. Short if we get two consecutive hourly closes below $30k.

This was a good call although the profitable long trade did not set up until the next day when the price clearly made a bullish rejection of the supportive area at the big round number of $30k.

We have since then seen a daily close above $31k which I had thought would be a good signal to enter a new long trade, but we have over the past day seen a bearish retracement and more worryingly for bulls, a new resistance level printed at $30,857, and the price is currently falling slowly from that area.

However, the longer-term price action still looks very bullish, and as we have seen the price trade above $31k, I think the more likely outcome will be a continuation of the upwards move.

Therefore, I see the best opportunity today as a long trade from any bullish bounce we get at the support level $30,605. The lower support level confluent with $30k would be an even better level for an attractive bullish bounce.

If we get bearish price action at $31,088 after a bullish bounce at a support level, that will be a bearish sign as it will start to suggest the completion of a bearish head and shoulders candlestick pattern.

Concerning the US Dollar there will be a release of the most recent FOMC Meeting Minutes at 7pm London time.

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