The technical picture has now become more bearish as we have seen topping price action around $44,000 with the resistance level at $44,228 looking especially strong.

My previous BTC/USD signal on 18^th December produced an excellent, nicely profitable long trade from the hourly inside bar which rejected the key support level at $40,623.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades may only be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $42,814, $42,583, or $41,709.
• Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Idea

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $44,228.
• Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous BTC/USD analysis on Monday last week that Bitcoin might be a good long-term buy at $40,623. This was a good call as it produced a nicely profitable trade, in line with the long-term bullish trend.

The technical picture has now become more bearish as we have seen topping price action around $44,000 with the resistance level at $44,228 looking especially strong. Another sign of consolidation which might be producing a reversal – or a high chance of a reversal – is the narrowing triangle formation which can be seen in the price chart below.

There is still a long-term bullish trend, but it is notable that so many stock indices, currencies, and commodities are breaking to new long-term highs against the US Dollar, while Bitcoin is failing to do so. This is a bearish sign for Bitcoin. Some analysts are speculating that if a Bitcoin ETF is soon approved as expected, it could drive the price of Bitcoin down.

So, there are signs of a bearish reversal, which suggests that a short trade from another touch of the strong resistance level at $44,228 could be a good short trade entry signal.

(Click on image to enlarge)

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