Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 24,000 and a take-profit at 25,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 23,000.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish View

• Set a sell-stop at 23,677 and a take-profit at 22,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 25,000.

The BTC/USD price retreated to the lowest point since August 12 as demand for cryptocurrencies waned. The pair was trading at 23,865, which was lower than this week’s high of 25,205. This price is about 28% above the lowest level this year.
 

FOMC Minutes Ahead

Bitcoin price has had a difficult time this week as demand for cryptocurrencies waned and as profitable investors started taking profits.

This performance also happened as the US dollar rebounded and stocks wavered. The US dollar index rose to over $106.50, which was higher than last week’s low of $104.50. In most cases, BTC has an inverse relationship with the US dollar.

American stocks also wavered even after the relatively strong earnings by Walmart and Home Depot. The Dow Jones and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 indices were relatively unchanged in the overnight session.

The key potential catalyst for the BTC/USD price will be the upcoming minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting that happened on July 28. In that meeting, Fed officials decided to hike interest rates by 0.75%, bringing the total year-to-date increase to 225 basis points.

The Fed also decided to continue with its quantitative tightening policy. Most importantly, the dot plot showed that most officials believed that more hikes are necessary. Therefore, these minutes will provide more color about what happened during the meeting. The BTC/USD pair tends to show significant volatility after the FOMC minutes.

Most Fed officials still believe that more hikes are necessary even after data revealed that the country’s inflation declined slightly last month. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the headline inflation dropped from 9.1% in June to 8.7% in July, The unemployment rate also dropped from 3.6% to 3.5%.
 

BTC/USD Forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been in a downward trend over the past two days. As it dropped, it tested the lower line of the ascending triangle pattern. In price action analysis, this pattern is usually a bullish sign. At the same time, the pair moved slightly below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages and the standard pivot point.

Still, the outlook for BTC is bullish, with the next key level to watch being 25,000. A move below the important support level at 23,000 will invalidate the bullish outlook.

(Click on image to enlarge)

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