Today’s BTC/USD Signals

• Risk 0.75% per trade.
• Trades must be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.

  (Click on image to enlarge)

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $68,906, $65,832, or $64,620.
• Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $70,625, $71,600, or $72,761.
• Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous BTC/USD analysis on 9^th May that the best opportunities here were likely to be small long trades from bounces at the nearest support levels. This was a good call as there was a bounce off $60,765 which gave a profitable trade.

The technical picture now has become much more bullish, with the price advancing quite strongly within the past couple of weeks to reach an area near March’s record highs.

This shows that Bitcoin is in a long-term bullish trend, which it has tended to respect and therefore has been a good asset for trend traders.

However, there are two bearish technical factors:

• The price keeps hitting resistance above $71,000 and selling off from there, and this has just happened again.
• The price has recently printed a lower resistance level at $70,625 which seems to have had a role in suppressing the price.

As the price is so near to the dangerous $71,000 area and the all-time high not far above that, I would not want to enter a long trade until we see a convincing breakout to new all-time highs.

Before that happens, I would look for a short trade from a reversal at a resistance level. The resistance level at $71,600 looks especially attractive for that.

Regarding the US Dollar, there will be a release of US Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time, followed by Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI at 2:45pm.

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