My previous BTC/USD signal on 11^th December was not triggered, as there was no bullish price action when any of the support levels were first reached that day.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades must be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.

Long Trade Ideas

• Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $40,623, $39,849, or $39,371.
• Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

• Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $41,246, $42,140, or $42,583.
• Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous BTC/USD analysis last Monday that Bitcoin might be a good long-term buy at support, but the drop from the highs printed several new resistance levels which may be hard to break. So, I saw the best approach might be to enter any bounces off support as long trades but be prepared to treat them like short-term trades if they do not perform well quickly.

This was a good call, as the price action has continued to be mostly bearish, but we do see strong support holding a bit lower than I was expecting last week, at $40,623. This level might still be a good place for a long-term buy as it is a little confluent with the big round number at $40k. However, the price chart below shows bearish price action bear the recent long-term highs, capped by a firmly descending trend line which seems to be pushing the price down.

I will still look for a firm bounce at $40,623 for a cautious long trade entry, but traders might want to be very cautious with this depending upon their risk appetite. More cautious traders may prefer waiting for a breakout signalled by a daily close above $44k which makes a new long-term high price.

On the other hand, due to its confluence with the bearish trend line, a short trade from a bearish reversal at $42,140 also looks attractive.

(Click on image to enlarge)

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