My previous BTC/USD signal on 10^th July was not triggered as there was no bearish price action when the resistance level at $30,605 was first reached that day.
 

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades may only be entered before 5 pm Tokyo time Thursday.

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $29,424 or $29,207.
• Put the stop loss of $100 below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $30,449 or $31,604.
•  Put the stop loss of $100 above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside, or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
 

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous BTC/USD analysis on 10^th July that we had a very pivotal area of resistance close above the $31k area but also very firm support just below the big round number at $30k. I was looking for a long trade from a bullish bounce at support.  

My call was of no consequence, as the price did not get below $30k that day.

Since then, we have seen the $31k area continue to hold as firm resistance, but we have also seen the price continue to rebound from the supportive area below $30k. However, that area of support is starting to come into question as the price persists in moving down. Technically, this short-term downward price movement is supported by the descending trend line shown in the price chart below, which is arguably becoming a bearish channel. This is likely to continue to move the price down to the nearest support level of $29,424.

It is interesting that while US stocks are taking off, Bitcoin remains unable to break above $31k and stay there – stocks and Bitcoin usually show a positive correlation.

I am still ready to take a long trade today from a bullish bounce at $29,424. However, if the price gets established below that level, it could be very pivotal, and trigger a sharp fall.

(Click on image to enlarge)

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