Today’s BTC/USD Signals

• Risk 0.75% per trade.
• Trades may only be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $61,180, $59,807, or $58,309.
• Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $62,321, $62,664, or $65,722.
• Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous BTC/USD analysis last Thursday that the short-term bearish price channel was pushing the price lower – and the topping out price action near the recent swing high around $65,000 looked bearish too.

This was not an especially accurate or useful call, as although the price continued to move down for a few hours, it found strong support and rose firmly to make a higher high. This then turned into a consolidation pattern, which is what we have seen continue for almost one week now.

Despite this consolidation which suggest we may now see a slow reversal and more bullish price action, zooming out to look at a longer-term price chart still looks bearish due to the recent topping price action.

I think the lows of the recent week just above the big round number at $60,000 look very pivotal. A bearish breakdown below that area could be a great entry trigger for a new short trade.

On the other hand, a bullish breakout beyond $63,400 could produce a much stronger upwards price movement, as the price would then have room to rise all the way to $65,722 without encountering any obvious resistance.

Regarding the US Dollar, there will be release of US CPI, Retail Sales, and Empire State Manufacturing Index data at 1:30pm London time.

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