BTC/USD trades narrowly; bearish over $70,000. Long at $69,699/$62,287, short at $66,480/$69,910. Watch for breakout, key US data, and Powell's speech.

My previous BTC/USD signal on 27^th March was not triggered.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

• Risk 0.75% per trade.
• Trades may only be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Long Trade Ideas

• Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $69,699 or $62,287.
• Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Ideas

• Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $66,480 or $69,910.
• Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous BTC/USD analysis one week ago that the technical picture suggested that the price has topped out at about $71,000 some way below the recent all-time high near $74,000. I saw two consecutive hourly closes below $68,852 as a good potential short trade signal.

Unfortunately, this was a bad call, as it did set up but would have got you entering a short trade right at the low of the day, so this was definitely a losing trade.

The technical picture has become a bit more bearish as the price has declined further, although it seems to have found firm support at $64,699. Despite that, there is strong resistance just overhead at $66,480, which seems to be succeeding at holding down the price.

The current price action is stuck within this narrow range, but a productive approach could be to wait for a breakout – bullish above $66,480, and bearish below $64,699. 

Regarding the US Dollar, there will be a release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Forecast at 1:15pm London time, followed by US ISM Services PMI at 3pm and Fed Chair Powell speaking at 5:10pm.

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