My previous BTC/USD signal last Monday was not triggered, as the price unfortunately never quite reached the resistance level at $84,807.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

• Risk 0.50% per trade.
• Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.

Long Trade Ideas

• Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $86,874, $84,807, or $81,386.
• Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Ideas

• Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $88,958 or $95,038.
• Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
 

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous BTC/USD forecast on 17th March that the price action was dominated by a bullish consolidation.

The resistance level at $84,807 stood out and I thought a breakout beyond that level would be bullishly significant. I was correct about that over the past week, but the price did not exceed this level on the day. However, the price did not make a bullish bounce either at the support level of $81,386.

So, I was right over the longer term, but my prediction was not very useful on the day.

The technical picture is even more bullish, with the price respecting new support levels and breaking higher, even if the action is a little choppy. As I write, the price is just breaking out to a new two-week high price.

If the price can get established above the next resistance level at $88,858 it has room to rise all the way to the $95,000 area, so a bullish breakout here might be very significant.

I am generally bullish here, supported by the stronger performance of risky assets such as Bitcoin as markets get a bit more optimistic about how the US will impose new tariffs on 2nd April.

I think a long trade entry following two consecutive higher hourly closes above $87,500 could be a good long trade but watch out for the resistance level at $88,958. More cautious traders might want to wait until the price has broken above that level before entering any new long trade here.

There is nothing of high importance due today regarding Bitcoin. Concerning the US Dollar, there will be a release of Retail Sales data at 12:30pm London time.

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