Bullish view

• Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 108,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 98,000.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

• Set a sell-stop at 100,000 and a take-profit at 98,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 105,000.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Bitcoin price bounced back after crashing to its lowest level since January 13 as tariff risks eased during the American session. The BTC/USD pair dropped to a low of 91,170 on Monday and then soared to over 100,545.

This rebound happened after the US and Mexico reached a deal to halt the proposed tariffs to give way for negotiations. Donald Trump wants to press Mexico on key issues, including a crackdown on illegal migration, which the country has been doing in the past few months.

The new deal helped lift the prices of risky assets like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 indices. After crashing by triple digits, the Dow Jones index ended the day up by over 15 points. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices turned green after crashing by over 1.5% during the day.

A sustained trade war between the US and its biggest trading partners will greatly impact Bitcoin and other risky assets. That will increase inflation and push the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish tone.
 

BTC/USD technical analysis

Bitcoin had a strong performance in 2024 as it soared from below $50,000 and moved to a record high of over $109,200. The BTC/USD pair has remained between the key support at 91,170 and the resistance level at 109,200.

It has formed a bullish flag chart pattern, a popular bullish continuation sign. This pattern has a long vertical line and a rectangle chart pattern and often leads to a strong bullish breakout.

Bitcoin has remained above the 50-day moving average and the ultimate resistance of the Murrey Math Lines indicator. It has also jumped above the key point at 100,000, and formed a hammer candlestick pattern.

The risk, however, is that the BTC/USD pair has formed a bearish divergence pattern as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD have tilted downwards. Therefore, the pair will likely have a strong bullish breakout as bulls target the all-time high of 109,200.

On the flip side, a drop below the support at 91,170, its lowest point this week, will point to further downside, potentially to 85,000.

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