I see the technical picture as essentially unchanged – a strong rejection of any of the nearby resistance levels could be a good opportunity to enter a short trade which would have a chance of catching a major bearish reversal. 

My previous BTC/USD signal on 23^rd November was not triggered as there was no bullish price action at the first touch of the identified support level at $37,271.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades must be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.

Long Trade Idea

• Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $35,661.
• Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $37,269, $37,708, or $38,659.
• Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous BTC/USD analysis that the price was consolidating just below a long term high on increasing volatility, suggesting a bearish reversal. Overall, I saw the $38k area as likely to be pivotal.

Since then, the price briefly made a new high, but has continued its wide, bullish consolidation.

I see the technical picture as essentially unchanged – a strong rejection of any of the nearby resistance levels could be a good opportunity to enter a short trade which would have a chance of catching a major bearish reversal. On the other hand, a daily close above $38,000 could be a powerful long trade entry signal for trend traders.

I also see the support level at $35,661 as likely to give a strong bounce if reached today, so that could be interesting for shorter-term traders, or swing traders using pullback trading strategies.

(Click on image to enlarge)

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