Bearish view

• Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 28,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 30,000.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

• Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 30,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 28,000.

The BTC/USD price remained in a deep slumber as the crypto winter continued. Bitcoin retreated to a low of $29,000, the lowest level since August 8th. It has dropped by about 3.6% from the highest point this month.
 

Federal Reserve minutes

Bitcoin wavered as the US dollar index (DXY) rose by 0.25% to $103.35. American equities rose, with the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq 100 indices falling by 0.45% and 1.15%, respectively. Bonds, on the other hand, sold off, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.27% and the 5-year soaring to 4.38%.

This price action was triggered by upbeat American economic data and the latest Federal Reserve minutes. Housing starts rose by 3.9% to over 1.452 million while building permits jumped by 0.1% to 1.44 million. Manufacturing and industrial production rose by 0.5% and 1.0%, respectively.

A day earlier, the US published strong retail sales numbers. According to the Commerce Department, the headline retail sales rose by 0.7% in July while core sales jumped by 1.0%, signaling that consumers are doing well.

The BTC/USD pair also reacted to the latest Fed minutes. The minutes showed that some committee members were concerned about overtightening and its impact on the American economy. Officials battled between the risks of raising rates too much versus too little:

 “Had become more two-sided, and it was important that the committee’s decisions balance the risk of an inadvertent overtightening of policy against the cost of an insufficient tightening.”

Therefore, analysts believe that the Fed will opt for patience in the coming meetings. This means that it will leave interest rates unchanged for the rest of the month.
 

BTC/USD technical analysis

The BTC/USD pair has been in a tight range in the past few weeks. In this period, the pair has formed a descending channel shown in red. The price was at the middle of this channel. It has also moved slightly below the 25-period and 50-period moving averages.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the oversold level while the Stochastic Oscillator has moved below 20. Therefore, the pair will likely continue consolidating in the coming days. On the lower side, the next level to watch will be at 28,300 while the resistance will be at 30,000.

(Click on image to enlarge)

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