Bearish view

• Set a sell-stop at 66,000 and a take-profit at 64,500.
• Add a stop-loss at 67,500.

Bullish view

• Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 70,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 64,000.

(Click on image to enlarge) 

Bitcoin price retreated as investors embraced a risk-off sentiment during the overnight session. The BTC/USD pair crashed to the important support at 65,000, down from this month’s high of 72,000.

Risk-on sentiment

Bitcoin price crashed hard last week after the Federal Reserve pointed to just one rate cut this year. It moved from near $70,000 to $65,000 on Monday.

It crashed even as US equities continued their remarkable rally. The Dow Jones jumped by more than 150 points on Monday while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices soared by 50 and 210 points, respectively.

This crash happened even after Fed’s Patrick Harker reinforced the view that the bank will cut once if inflation continues falling. Data released last week confirmed that inflation was falling, albeit at a slower pace than expected. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) retreated to 3.3% while the core CPI fell to 3.4%.

Bitcoin has also retreated because of the relatively weak ETF inflows in the past few weeks. Recent data shows that most funds have seen limited inflows after the coin failed to break past the crucial resistance point at $72,000 this month.

Looking ahead, the next likely catalyst for the coin will be the upcoming US retail sales and industrial production data. These are important numbers that play a part in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

BTC/USD technical analysis

The price of Bitcoin has remained in a tight range in the past few months. It has remained inside the crucial support and resistance levels at $56,493 and $72,795.

On the daily chart, the BTC/USD pair formed a small double-top pattern at 71,708 and has now moved to its neckline at 66,000. A double-top chart pattern is a popular bearish sign in the market.

The pair also sits at the Woodie pivot point and the 50-day moving average. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below the neutral point of 50.

Therefore, the coin will likely remain in this range on Tuesday as investors wait for a new catalyst. A sustained Bitcoin upside will be confirmed if the price moves above the year-to-date high of 72,600.

If this happens, the BTC/USD pair will likely continue rising as buyers target the next important psychological level at 75,000. The alternative scenario is where Bitcoin retreats and retests the key support at 60,000. 

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