BTC/USD Forecast: Struggles To Break Out, Shows Promise

Bitcoin rallied a bit Monday but pales in comparison to the massive selling that we had seen previously. Because of this, I think it is only somewhat positive, and we more likely than not will have plenty of headwinds above that continue to work against the value of the market. If that’s going to be the case, then I am more than willing to fade rallies as they occur.

In the short term, the $23,000 level looks to be a significant barrier, one that the market has no real momentum to break above. Even if it did, I suspect that there is a major ceiling near the $28,000 level that extends to the $32,000 level. While Bitcoin itself is still the “gold standard” when it comes to crypto, the reality is that it is just as sensitive to Federal Reserve monetary policy as gold. For the longest time, the argument was that Bitcoin was going to be a “hedge against inflation.” That has certainly shown itself to not be true.

You can’t call it a store of wealth either, because quite frankly anything like that can't lose half of its value every time something bad happens. This is not to say that the market will go higher over the long term because I do believe that it will. It’s just that you need to understand that you are speculating in a highly volatile asset class, and you need to understand the inherent risks in doing so.

If and when we break down below the $18,000 level, and I do believe that’s more of a “when” than “if” type of statement, we should go looking toward the $16,000 level, and eventually the $12,000 level. There are so many people waiting for the $12,000 level to be tested, I suspect that there will be a lot of inflow into this market when that happens. It’s also worth noting that the $12,000 level was crucial before, so I do anticipate that a lot of “market memory” will occur there, causing previous resistance to be supported. Because of this, I think you have plenty of time to accumulate a position, but if you choose to do so quietly and slowly, that’s also a possibility here. Either way, I am not expecting Bitcoin or any crypto for that matter to break out to the upside anytime soon.

(Click on image to enlarge)

BTC/USD


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