• The twist of irony is that the BTC/USD has proven that it is not immune to financial conditions around the world recently.
• While many in the Bitcoin community have been celebrating the idea of decentralized currency, the reality is that Bitcoin is still greatly influenced by what goes on around the world.
• As an example, tightening monetary policy has been like a sledgehammer to the price of Bitcoin.

The Consumer Price Index printed at 7.1% year-over-year in the United States, which was lower than the expected 7.3%. Because of this, the US dollar got hammered as people start to suspect that the Federal Reserve may have to change monetary policy. There is a Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, that will certainly have a major influence on what happens next with the US dollar. Because of this, I would not think that Bitcoin is in the clear quite yet, and it is telling that it failed right at the crucial $18,000 level. The $18,000 level has been important more than once, as it was previous support, and now should have a certain amount of “market memory” built into it.
 

I Have no Interest in Buying Bitcoin

The 50-Day EMA is right here as well, therefore I think it’s not overly surprising to see a bit of hesitation. I would also point out that if Jerome Powell is very hawkish tomorrow, and I suspect he probably will be, that could put pressure on highly risky assets such as Bitcoin. Beyond that, we are now starting to see the fallout from FTX as other firms are blowing up, including the possibility of something not quite being right at Binance. If that exchange goes, it’s going to be interesting to see what happens to crypto in general. I can assure you that it will not be anything good.

If we do rally above the heights of the last day, it’s likely that we could see this market go looking to the $20,000 level, perhaps up to the $22,000 level. The market would have to break above the 200-Day EMA, near the $22,500 level to make any serious statement of bullishness, as the market has been beaten down so drastically. I suspect that we still have a target of $15,000 in the short term, followed by $12,000 over the longer term. I have no interest in buying Bitcoin anytime soon.

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