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Crypto bulls are proclaiming the start of ‘Uptober’, considering the moves we’re seeing across the space today. BTC and ETH are both surging higher with BTC up around 6% since the Asian open last night. Prices remain well bid through early European trading on Monday with around $70 million worth of shorts said to have been liquidated during the overnight surge. Seasonal data suggests that October is typically a bullish month for crypto with Bitcoin only seeing two negative returns on the month in the ten years since 2013 whether the rally will hold remains to be seen, with USD bouncing off the session lows as of writing.
 

Fed Outlook in Focus

The Fed is widely expected to press ahead with at least one further hike this cycle and has also signaled that rates are likely to stay at elevated levels for longer than initially thought. The outlook hinges on recent US data pointing to greater resilience within the economy, as well as a fresh uptick in inflation which has seen 2024 rate cut projections pushed out. However, some Fed officials have noted a more uncertain view recently. If data starts to weaken heading into 2024 this could well see those rate cut projections brought in again, which should help drive crypto prices higher near-term. Looking ahead this week, the main focus will be on the next round of US labor market data due on Friday.
 

Technical Views

BTC

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The rally off the 24930 lows has seen the market breaking back above the 27415 level. With momentum studies turning higher, focus is on a continuation higher. The retest of the broken bull trend line will now be the next hurdle for bulls ahead of a test of the 32185 level August highs. 

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