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• US 10-year Treasury note yield declines below 3.7% as investors await debt deal votes.
• House of Representatives set to vote on the bill today, following a 7-6 majority clearance in the House Rules Committee. The bill will then move to the Senate.
• Concerns arise as several Republicans express opposition to the bill, potentially impacting its passage.
• Yields on lower-maturity bonds continue to decline from recent highs, with the 4-week bill falling below 5.3%.
• Markets now assign a higher probability for a 25bps rate hike in the fed funds rate in June.
• Key economic data, including the payrolls report and the ISM Manufacturing PMI, will offer further insights into the strength of the economy.

Upon examining the Notes Futures, we note a modest increase of approximately 0.2%, supported by the lower yield. Although the daily interval trades below the developing value areas for the Quarter and Month, the Year’s lower value extreme provided support in the previous session, indicating the potential for reaching the upper extreme from a technical standpoint.

Taking a median-term perspective, we observe a bearish bias coupled with positive volatility, which could exert additional pressure depending on the outcome of the debt deal votes.

Today’s job data, which showcased robust numbers, seems to have weighed on the equities sector, reinforcing the likelihood of the central bank maintaining its hawkish approach within the current tightening cycle.

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