Image Source: Pexels

Companies cancelled import orders from high-tariffed countries. Now they want those orders.

Oops I Changed My Mind

The wave of cancellations from countries like Vietnam suddenly morphed into a New Surge of Import Orders.

President Trump’s 90-day pause on tariffs is spurring another wave of cargo frontloading on ships from Southeast Asia and South America. Big ocean carriers like Maersk, MSC and Hapag-Lloyd are getting calls to proceed with shipments that were put on hold.

“For the supply chains this means the large number of bookings which were suspended or paused for the past week are all prone to be shipped as soon as possible for non-China origins,” said Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, which advises the top five boxship operators on strategy.

However, loadings from China have fallen off a cliff amid the tariff war with the U.S. Freight forwarders based in China say cancellations for China shipments peaked at 55% this week.

China Not Out of Picture Yet

With reciprocal tariffs in Vietnam set at 46 percent, Taiwan at 32 percent, and Japan at 24 percent, trade with Asia was about to crash with a wave of order cancellations.

Although Trump reset tariffs to 10 percent on all other nations, he upped tariffs on China to 145 percent.

However, with Vietnam back at 10 percent, expect more tariff avoidance by China via way of Vietnam.

Bond Market Vote of No Confidence

I am watching the bond market closely now. As I type the yield on the 30-year long bond is up another 6 basis points to 4.91 percent.

Yield on the 10-year note is up 7 basis points to 4.47 percent.

At the yield lows this morning, the 30-year rate was 4.67 percent and the 10-year note was 4.27 percent.

That’s a rise of 20 basis points on the 10-year note and 24 basis points on the long bond.

CPI Much Better than Expected, Bond Market Reacts Poorly in Big Warning

At 1:36 Mountain Time today I commented CPI Much Better than Expected, Bond Market Reacts Poorly in Big Warning

I posted charts of the 30-year long bond of 4.85 percent and the 10-year note at 4.40 percent.

My sarcastic comment was “But that’s OK because Trump says the current bond market is beautiful”.

Fact check: Trump “I was watching the bond market. The bond market is very tricky. I was watching it. But if you look at it now, it’s… it’s beautiful. But, yeah, I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy.”

Now, who are you going to believe, the bond market reaction or Trump’s description of the bond market?

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. We are nearly back to bond yields that caused Trump to panic.

Related Posts

April 9, 2025: Trump Capitulates with a 90-Day Pause on Tariffs, DOW Jumps 2,200 Points

Trump has had enough of the stock market decline.

The DOW finished up just short of 3,000 points.

April 10, 2025: Three Things that Spooked the Bond Market and Why Trump Blinked

Trump calmed the stock and bond markets for now. The key issues still remain.

It seems “for now” did not last very long.

April 10, 2025: A Third of Yesterday’s Massive Rally Vanishes, Who Knew What When?

Check out an interesting chart of options trading ahead of the rally.

What’s Gold Saying?

Also consider my January 31, 2025 post Gold Hits New Record High, Dear Jerome Powell, Is Everything Under Control?

At the time I wrote that post, gold was $2796.

As I type gold is up another $56 today to $3,232. It hit a new record high today.

Gold does not believe the Fed has things under control, the bond market does not believe the Fed has things under control, and neither do I.

More By This Author: